"Your chance of having this failure based on calculations noted elsewhere are between 0.56 % and an upper limit of about 1.5 % based on Chrysler data on the 13 issues sited in the recall."
Be careful with these numbers. That's the number of failures that have ALREADY occurred. As more people drive more miles, more failures are bound to occur. I don't think there is any way to put an upper bound on your chance of having this failure.
yes, to be precise, those are 95% confidence bounds that your car is one of the experienced failures during a fleet exploitation period equivalent to the one that has happened until recall has been counted and published.
it is what you choose to believe this period has been equivalent to say one month (just a wild guess), and you want to see what the risk over the next 3 months until it is fixed in mid september is, the 95% upper bound for risk, assuming constant risk of failure, will become
the lower bound grows to
for any arbitrary period this will be equivalent to following a so called exponential distribution's cumulative function (cdf) with the rates equal to the bounds.
problem is we don't know what period of incidence the recall data is equivalent to is, otherwise we might try to build guesses on these bounds over some time ahead starting from now. Also, it is probably more applicable to miles driven rather than time passed. They had one failed car that failed after over 7k miles, so if we had exact data about mileage when it happened, we could fit exponential distribution over miles much better. so, a lot of assumptions, yes.
also w.r.t. severity of immobilization failure, I agree that it seems neither power steering nor breaking is affected in any way, but the fix would require a tow to the dealer and waiting for months, unlike the collapsed tire wall, which would still require a tow but would just require a new tire and any tire shop that can mount tires. So definitely not recommended for trips imo.