Here is my view after having new 2018 PacHy Limited for just over 2 weeks. Hope it helps you to make the right decision.
1. Battery gives me 32-38 miles on full charge. I already see fuel cost savings of $35-$40/week from my 60 miles/day commute (99% electric on Level 1 charge overnight at home, and Level 2 for 2 hours at work).
It's with $2.80 average gas price which isn't likely to go down. But if gas prices go up, hybrid savings will only grow.
Plus, I expect to save few hundred more from several long-distance trips I do every year - so, your projected savings number looks correct.
2. Aside of anticipated 12V battery reliability issue (and assuming that your new PacHy has recall work done), HV battery is by far the highest-risk component in the vehicle - it may fail, and stories on this forum posted by members who had it fail are not pretty. HV battery is covered for 150k miles (may be 100k in your state) / 10 years, but it takes time, effort, and nerves to get it replaced if needed. In my mind, it is the biggest risk you should accept if you go the hybrid way.
3. Other than HV battery, this hybrid has similar chance to have something fail, as any other new car. I WILL buy extended warranty mainly because my PacHy is packed with expensive technology items, many of which are the same for hybrid and gas models - if you read some reviews (like Car and Driver), you will see that most failures / problems they experienced are not hybrid-specific. Therefore I would suggest anyone buying tech-packed car to get extended warranty. However, in case of hybrid I can cover the cost of extended warranty by sacrificing about 1.5 years worth of fuel savings, while with gas vehicle it would be additional cost. To me, not getting extended warranty (or getting some cheap non-Mopar backed extended warranty) is a dangerous gamble.
4. I don't think it is realistic to make purchasing decision on expectation of any new car to "go strong after 10 years" - even with different statistical reliability averages between car manufacturers, your particular car may be an outlier, and be either strong after 10+ years, or die earlier than that. I had a 12+ years old Chrysler minivan that was driving "like new" (although on its 4th transmission, all replaced under extended warranty), and another non-Chrysler minivan which would have $5k+ repair bill if I would not trade it in after 9 years. But both vans delivered some great family trips. I don't expect any 2019 car to need zero repairs if it lasts through 2029, and I don't expect those repairs to be cheap...