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To pass the time while Chrysler shoots their sales people in the feet I have been doing research on the Pacifica Hybrid. Why napkin? it is my little term for when I do math and research without any rigor. The kind of stuff done with a pint of beer and a connection to google. Would love to hear other peoples thoughts to pass the time.
Drink beer number one here...
Sales:
See: Chrysler September 2016 Sales Numbers USA
Chrysler has to be having some major flame wars within the company. Once could expect for Pacifica sales to follow the same trend as T&C sales. With the sales department promising the release this fall for months now the community is waiting for the hybrid to hit the lots. How many people are waiting? oh per the Sept sales data I am going to guess around ~26,513. Multiply that by the base price of 28K and you get a pretty number 742,364,000. A bit of deviation can be allowed for new model fears but I theorize that most of this is made up for with the Pacifica performing so solidly and early adopters wanting to show off. The gas model is definately a sexy beast.
But your are probably thinking if we add together the Pacifica and T&C sales YTD we get a much larger number. You are right, and I am going to notch my reasoning for not including 2017 T&C sales data to my ego and feeling that it did not matter...that and Chrysler conveniently omits their monthly T&C data for 2017 while the Pacifica data is listed loud and proud (even with the large decline last month following the Hybrid building Wrap)
Might want to grab a craft brew for this section.
Hybrid Performance Data
Jotting down a few items and assuming prices at .12/kWh and 30 miles at 16 kWh; gas at $2.40 (give me a break here) and 80MPG. We can assume that the cost per mile is around $0.03 whether running electric or gas. Someone nerdier than me can flame the math and correct it.
But this means that the average T&C driver is going to save approximated $10K per hundred thousand miles. I am personally a 150-200K mile driver.
For the faint of heart...I would recommend a good scotch here. 10 year is ideal as it will be 18 by the time you finish.
Hybrid Release Prediction Data aka the rant
With these two items evident the mortality rate and stress levels have to be high at Chrysler. If your sales numbers were down a half a billion over the previous year due to people waiting for a release what would you do? If I were sales I would move the release date to say...2nd quarter the following year (see twitter). Far enough out that families who are trying to replace their aging vehicle during end of year incentive times will give up waiting.
Time to close it out with a big glass o Koolaid
Could it be that Chrysler sales gambled and lost? Being in technology I have seen sales over promise on a whisper from engineering many times.
Sales: "Could it be ready this year?"
Engineer "....if we hit all the QA deadlines maybe"
Sales: "Cool, I will slate it for late this year and hype it up"
Engineer "Sure...just leave me alone"
Meanwhile a few months later the sales manager wants to know why he needs to explain to the board the half billion dollar bath they are taking. Engineering gets blamed, sales plays a tap dance to convince people to buy the gas model and the customers wave their impotence in frustration.
6 weeks after the delay is announced...sales are up and wow the hybrid appears for one of the 2 biggest car sales weekends. This causes a massive flood of purchasing, wait lists begin and a free advertising campaign is born as people brag about having the exclusive car. Sales manager is given a nice bonus as EOY sales and pre-orders are higher than ever in history.
Drink beer number one here...
Sales:
See: Chrysler September 2016 Sales Numbers USA
Chrysler has to be having some major flame wars within the company. Once could expect for Pacifica sales to follow the same trend as T&C sales. With the sales department promising the release this fall for months now the community is waiting for the hybrid to hit the lots. How many people are waiting? oh per the Sept sales data I am going to guess around ~26,513. Multiply that by the base price of 28K and you get a pretty number 742,364,000. A bit of deviation can be allowed for new model fears but I theorize that most of this is made up for with the Pacifica performing so solidly and early adopters wanting to show off. The gas model is definately a sexy beast.
But your are probably thinking if we add together the Pacifica and T&C sales YTD we get a much larger number. You are right, and I am going to notch my reasoning for not including 2017 T&C sales data to my ego and feeling that it did not matter...that and Chrysler conveniently omits their monthly T&C data for 2017 while the Pacifica data is listed loud and proud (even with the large decline last month following the Hybrid building Wrap)
Might want to grab a craft brew for this section.
Hybrid Performance Data
Jotting down a few items and assuming prices at .12/kWh and 30 miles at 16 kWh; gas at $2.40 (give me a break here) and 80MPG. We can assume that the cost per mile is around $0.03 whether running electric or gas. Someone nerdier than me can flame the math and correct it.
But this means that the average T&C driver is going to save approximated $10K per hundred thousand miles. I am personally a 150-200K mile driver.
For the faint of heart...I would recommend a good scotch here. 10 year is ideal as it will be 18 by the time you finish.
Hybrid Release Prediction Data aka the rant
With these two items evident the mortality rate and stress levels have to be high at Chrysler. If your sales numbers were down a half a billion over the previous year due to people waiting for a release what would you do? If I were sales I would move the release date to say...2nd quarter the following year (see twitter). Far enough out that families who are trying to replace their aging vehicle during end of year incentive times will give up waiting.
Time to close it out with a big glass o Koolaid
Could it be that Chrysler sales gambled and lost? Being in technology I have seen sales over promise on a whisper from engineering many times.
Sales: "Could it be ready this year?"
Engineer "....if we hit all the QA deadlines maybe"
Sales: "Cool, I will slate it for late this year and hype it up"
Engineer "Sure...just leave me alone"
Meanwhile a few months later the sales manager wants to know why he needs to explain to the board the half billion dollar bath they are taking. Engineering gets blamed, sales plays a tap dance to convince people to buy the gas model and the customers wave their impotence in frustration.
6 weeks after the delay is announced...sales are up and wow the hybrid appears for one of the 2 biggest car sales weekends. This causes a massive flood of purchasing, wait lists begin and a free advertising campaign is born as people brag about having the exclusive car. Sales manager is given a nice bonus as EOY sales and pre-orders are higher than ever in history.
